Comparing Different Early Warning Systems: Results from a Horse Race Competition Among Members of the Macro-Prudential Research Network

Famine Early Warning Systems Network

slowly evolving natural hazards such as agricultural drought. Famine early warning systems transform these data into actionable policy information, enabling humanitarian organizations to respond in a timely and appropriate manner. These life-saving responses are increasingly important: In 2006, one out of eight people did not have enough food to eat and 22 million more people became sufficientl...

Toward robust early-warning models: A horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty

This paper presents first steps toward robust models for crisis prediction. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods as early-warning models. As individual models are in the literature most often built in isolation of other methods, the exercise is of high relevance for assessing the relative performance of a wide variety of methods. F...

Comparing Models for Early Warning Systems of Neglected Tropical Diseases

BACKGROUND Early warning systems (EWS) are management tools to predict the occurrence of epidemics of infectious diseases. While climate-based EWS have been developed for malaria, no standard protocol to evaluate and compare EWS has been proposed. Additionally, there are several neglected tropical diseases whose transmission is sensitive to environmental conditions, for which no EWS have been p...

Optimal Macro-Prudential and Monetary Policy∗

This paper addresses two main questions. First, it examines the implications of financial frictions, embedded in a New Keynesian DSGE model with a banking sector, for the conduct of welfare-optimal monetary policy. Assuming only one monetary instrument, we analyse how financial frictions affect the gains from commitment and how different are the optimized simple rules with and without financial...

An early warning on early warning systems!